Oil

US Oil production amazingly has only recently surpassed its 1970 peak. It has doubled over the past 7 years hitting 10.2 Mill barrels a day (mbd) shown on this chart, but more up to date data indicates over 10.4 mbd in April with potential for 12 mbd by year end. A lot of pipelines and terminals & drilling parts/service will be needed into at least late 2019 before delivery capacity can catch up to production. Capital spending has lagged price & production, but should accelerate later this year.

I have often talked about the gift the Saudi & Russian Oil pact has been for the US as they allow us to essentially take their Oil exports as we surpass Saudi production & will overtake Russia in coming months. These higher prices & any curtailment of Iran’s production will open up new areas in the US to renewed drilling beyond the Permian

 

US really didn’t export Oil much until late 2013 & output didn’t blast off until March 2017 averaging 45 to 50 Mill barrels a month since last Sept’

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrexus1&f=a

 

& US net imports of crude Oil have been cut in half the past decade  https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=wcrntus2&f=4

 

& in petroleum products (gasoline/diesel/liquefied gas canisters…) the US has been a net exporter since 2011 holding a very strong net export balance equivalent to roughly 3 Mill’ barrels a day

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WRPNTUS2&f=W

 

& in Nat Gas we have been exporting more for longer & 2017 was the 1st year the US exported more Natural Gas than they imported – & the net export gap should keep surging

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9130us2A.htm