Bannister “If 2,800 S&P 500 is fair value, why call for 2,520 by 3Q18?
We see a risk-off decline in the 10Y yield to 2.6% and a stronger dollar the remainder of 2Q18 and into 3Q18”
We are targeting 2,520 for the S&P 500 (-5%) by mid-3Q18, setting up for a +10% return to 2,800 by year-end 2018. On 1/26/18 we forecast a 5% correction, then on 1/30/18 we downgraded reflation trades that had been our focus since we saw populism ascendant on 11/3/16, before the 2016 election. On 2/6/18 we factored a -10% correction into our views. The S&P 500 peaked at 2,872.87 on1/26/18 and although we see a fair value at year-end of 2,800 the balance of risks described in thisreport cause us to open a tactical trade to 2,520 (-5%) for the S&P 500 in the interim. See attached link
Target 2,520 for S&P 500 (-5%) by mid-3Q18 (sets up for a +10% rebound<https://stifel2.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=2317aa3c-f584-48d2-862c-dbe9436270bc&mime=pdf&co=Stifelemail@example.com&source=mail>
Bottomline: TD 8 of 13 targets 2593, 2543 and 2494. Reiterate our defensive posture ergo sell ’em when you can not when you have to. “We see the S&P 500 dropping (5)% to 2,520 by 3Q18 (now 2,648) with the 10Y yield falling to 2.6% and the USD rising as a result of weaker global GDP and Fed rate hike signals. In this “risk-off” period we overweight utilities, staples, healthcare and REITs” ….
SPX Index : S&P 500 Index
This information is not considered Stifel Research and was not prepared by the Stifel Research Department. DeMark indicators reflect my personal views concerning technical trading patterns and technical analysis. DeMark information is not considered Research and should only be considered to be an additional data point for use with other information when formulating investment opinions.