Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks fell Wednesday, November 14th. The Industrials have dropped 1,100 points over the past five trading days. There is a good possibility wave 3-down has started. To give perspective, the October plunge was wave 1-down. If this is the correct Elliott Wave mapping, it means wave 3-down will be significantly worse than wave 1-down was. It could mean the Industrials will drop more than 3,000 points over the coming weeks. This will include some corrective rallies, however the recent corrective rally was weak, not a good sign for the stock market. Volume rose on Thursday’s decline, also not good. There has been no sign of selling exhaustion, which means the new Bear market has further downside coming. Our key trend-finder indicators remain on a Sell signal.
Precious metals and Mining stocks rose Thursday. Our HUI key trend-finder indicators remain on a Sell signal.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal November 12th, 2018 and remain there Wednesday, November 14th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Sell signal Friday, November 9th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on November 12th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on November 12th, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal Wednesday, October 10th, and remains there Wednesday, November 14th, losing 8 points (out of a possible 9 points), to negative -26. It will need to rise above positive + 5 for a new Buy signal.
Demand Power fell 4 to 409 Wednesday while Supply Pressure rose 1 to 430, telling us Wednesday’s decline in Blue Chips was moderatre. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Short Signal November 12th, and remains there Wednesday, November 14th, 2018. The previous Sell signal identified the start of the October plunge.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved to an “OFF” signal on October 25th, which means the PPT is not likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold, Silver and Miners rose Wednesday . They generated a Sell signal Thursday, October 25th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal October 24th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on October 25th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short signal Wednesday, October 24th. On Wednesday, November 14th, Demand Power rose 7 to 389 while Supply Pressure fell 4 to 434, telling us Wednesday’s HUI rise was moderate.
DJIA PPI fell 4 to 20.24, on a Sell
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 43.33 Slow 60.00 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 46.67 Slow 78.89 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 43.33
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 33.33
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 13.33
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 8 to Negative -26, On a Sell
Demand Power Fell 4 to 409, Supply Pressure Up 1 to 430 Sell
McClellan Oscillator Fell to Positive + 1.26
McClellan Osc Summation Index – 322.41
Plunge Protection Team Indicator – 15.93, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 31.9 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 23 New Lows 172
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Sell signal Monday, November 12th, 2018, and remain there November 14th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sellon November 9th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sellsignal on November 12th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on November 12th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anEnter Short positions signal Monday, November 12th and remains there November 14th. On Wednesday November 14th, Demand Power fell 4 to 444, while Supply Pressure flat at 462, telling us the decline was mild.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal November 1st, 2018, and needs to rise above positive + 5.0 for a new Buy. It fell to negative – 0.4 on Wednesday, November 14th.
NDX PPI Fell 4 to 156.52 On a Sell
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 35.71 Slow 46.67 On a Sell
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 34.52 Slow 57.62 On a Sell
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -0.4 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Fell 4 to 444, Supply Pressure Flat at to 462 Sell
RUT PPI Fell 2 to 142.90 on a Sell
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -13.0 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal October 25th, 2018.
HUI PPI Rose 3 to + 160.87, on a Sell
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 30.00, Slow 31.67 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Up 7 to 389; Supply Pressure Fell 4 to 434, Sell