Today’s Market Comments:
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicator generated a new Buy signal Monday, July 9th. All of our indicators are now on Buy signals except the HUI Purchasing Power Indicator. Stocks rose sharply Monday, on light but improving volume. Three is a good chance that stocks are now inside the final wave v-up (e-up for techs) for the rising trend-channel from August 2015. Tonight we show trend-channel analysis for the major averages in charts on pages 25 through 32. This is an interesting study as it gives us some minimum upside price targets for all the major stock averages using a different technical analysis tool, independent of wave mapping, trend-lines. This study shows that the major averages are inside well-defined rising trend-channels from April 2018, and that within these channels, they are forming at least five waves that float from the upper boundary to the lower boundary and back again to the top again and again. They just touched the bottom boundary June 28th. They are now back rising within the channel toward the upper boundary line, which could give us a reasonable expectation for an upside price target. The study suggests stocks have a nice rally phase ahead of them over the coming weeks. Once they hit the top boundary line, we will then watch to see if they breakout higher. If they do, then wave v-up is going to take prices above the January 2018 tops for Blue Chips. On the other hand, if they break below the bottom boundary of these rising trend-channels, that would suggest the Bull market is at its conclusion.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal July 9th, 2018 and remain there Monday, July 9th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Thursday, July 5th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on June 14th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on July 9th, 2018. When these three indicators are in agreement, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Monday, July 9th, rising 5 points (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 23, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power rose 6 to 395 Monday while Supply Pressure fell 3 to 374, telling us Monday’s rise in Blue Chips was moderate. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Friday, July 6th, and remains there Monday, July 9th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold, Silve r and Mining stocks were flat Monday, July 9th. They moved to a Sideways signal Tuesday, July 3rd, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal July 3rd, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Short signal. On Monday, July 9th, Demand Power fell 2 to 388 while Supply Pressure rose 3 to 402, telling us Monday’s HUI move as mild.
DJIA PPI Rose 5 to + 66.51, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00 Slow 38.00 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 60.00 Slow 36.67 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 50.00
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 96.67
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 96.67
Secondary Trend Indicator Rose 5 to Positive + 23, On a Buy
Demand Power Rose 6 to 395, Supply Pressure Fell 3 to 374 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Rose to positive + 125.71
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2841.46
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 0.28, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 353.7 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 132 New Lows 14
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Buy signal Friday, July 6th, 2018, and remain there July 9th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on July 2nd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered aBuy signal on July 2nd, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Buy positions signal Friday, July 6th and remains there July 9th. On Monday July 9th, Demand Power rose 4 to 425, while Supply Pressure fell 5 to 408, telling us Monday’s rise was moderate.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal July 6th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It rose to positive + 13.0 on Monday, July 9th.
NDX PPI Rose 6 to + 255.07 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 55.00 Slow 45.20 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 67.00 Slow 45.20 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 13.0 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Up 4 to 425, Supply Pressure Fell 5 to 408 Sideways
RUT PPI Rose 2 + 198.55 on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +162.4 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal July 3rd, 2018.
HUI PPI Flat at 182.38, on a Sell
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 60.00, Slow 40.56 on a Buy
HUI Demand Power Fell 2 to 388; Supply Pressure Up 3 to 402, Sell