Jay Pelosky, the founder of Pelosky Global Strategies, highlighted something about the stock market’s 2017 performance that may be flying under the radar: It isn’t as great as it seems.
Speaking as a guest on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas” on Monday, Pelosky explained that the developed markets excluding the U.S. have seen their stock markets gain 15 percent since the start of 2017, which is even short of the 18-percent return emerging markets have shown. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index is up just 6 percent — at time of publication, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY was up 7.15 percent year to date.
“The real question is not why has the S&P 500 held up so well, the real question is: Is the rest of the world starting to take the leadership baton away from U.S. equities?” Pelosky asked. “And that’s a big deal because these moves tend to last for years — not quarters, not months.”
Pelosky isn’t necessary optimistic that U.S. markets can regain its leadership position as a home for stock market outperformance, especially under the current political climate, which he dubbed “Trump troubles.”
Pelosky believes the current “Trump troubles” will first lead to “policy inertia,” which then leads to weak growth. As such, earnings strength will shift from one of the best in years to questionable at best and ultimately present a poor risk-to-reward profile for U.S. equities.
Pelosky continued that a poor risk to reward profile for U.S. equities could further emphasize America’s status as a market laggard, not a market outperformer.